DeutschThe financial markets are rubbing their eyes in disbelief. While the US Federal Reserve has so far spoken of two interest rate cuts in the current year, one of the best-known Wall Street analysts considers three steps to be possible – and immediately links the outlook to a bold forecast for Bitcoin. Tom Lee, co-founder of the analysis firm Fundstrat and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the mining company Bitmine, explained in an interview with CNBC that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could «easily rise to $200,000».
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The reason: The interest rate environment. For nine months, the Fed had worn down the markets with its wait-and-see attitude. The result: depressed sentiment, sluggish prices for Bitcoin and Co. But now, weaker labor market figures indicate pressure to act. «Once the job market tips, it is difficult to repair,» said Lee. Therefore, it is «only logical» that the central bank will take more decisive action in the fall than previously signaled. The FOMC, the Fed’s most important decision-making body, could tighten its tone as early as September 17.
Bitcoin: is the Fed’s Interest Rate Policy Driving the Price to $200,000?
Lee sees this as the possible starting signal for a brilliant year-end rally. This is because, traditionally, the crypto markets perform better in the fourth quarter than in the rest of the year. The analyst refers to historical patterns: Whenever the Fed started cutting interest rates in the final quarter, stocks rose significantly. This was the case in 1998, and 2024 could also become one of these exceptional years. «The correlation between stocks and cryptos is well-known – Bitcoin should benefit from this,» says Lee.
His forecast seems breathtaking. $200,000 – that would be a doubling compared to the current price. For investors, this sounds like an invitation to the next wave of speculation. But there is a fine line between euphoria and reality. This is because the Fed’s monetary policy is only one factor among many. Geopolitical tensions, new regulations or simply market psychology can push the price down again at any time.
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Nevertheless, Lee’s advance is fascinating. He combines sober interest rate arithmetic with a touch of crypto magic. The idea that a central bank decision on September 17 will decide on the next hype has its appeal – also because it links the classic financial system with the untamed world of digital currencies. For investors, this is a thrill: While bonds and stocks react comparatively sluggishly to interest rate steps, Bitcoin promises a fast, spectacular result.
This could Trigger the Decision around BTC
But caution is advised. A price jump to $200,000 would put Bitcoin even more in the spotlight – with all the consequences. Regulators worldwide would hardly understand a price explosion that is primarily fueled by speculative flows. And the volatility, which has deterred many investors so far, is likely to reach new records.
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Whether it will come to that remains open. One thing is certain: The fall will be exciting. Three interest rate cuts by the Fed would be a novelty in a year that is already characterized by uncertainties. Should Lee be right, September could be not only a monetary policy milestone, but also a turning point for Bitcoin. Until then, the motto is: wait, speculate, dream. $200,000 is possible – perhaps even faster than many think. (mck)
