DeutschThe calm seems deceptive. For days, Bitcoin has been hovering around the $65,000 mark. No breakout, no breakdown. But beneath the surface, things are brewing. Analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex are sounding the alarm: Several indicators currently point to growing downside risks. Their latest market report speaks of “whale preparations” — a term that rarely bodes well in the industry.
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Specifically, the experts are seeing increased inflows from large wallets to trading platforms. According to the report, around 64% of current Bitcoin deposits to exchanges come from large addresses. Usually, that means: readiness to sell. Because anyone looking to hold long term keeps coins in self-custody. Anyone looking to sell sends them to an exchange.
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So far, there’s no sign of a massive sell-off. But moves by major market players are considered an early indicator. When so-called whales reposition their holdings, the market often follows with a delay. The current sideways phase could therefore turn out to be just a stopover. Institutional investors are also sending mixed signals. Since the start of the year, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of around $2.6 billion, Bitfinex writes, citing market data. Capital being pulled from exchange-traded Bitcoin products doesn’t point to rising risk appetite. Instead, it suggests caution — especially among professional investors.
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On top of that, a look at the options market. According to the report, bearish positioning is increasing there. Traders are increasingly hedging against falling prices or directly betting on declines. On-chain data didn’t give the all-clear either. Transaction patterns and liquidity flows signaled caution. From a macro perspective, the environment remains tense. Interest-rate policy, geopolitical uncertainty, fragile economic data — all of that is weighing on risk markets. Bitcoin reacts sensitively to liquidity and sentiment. In phases of heightened uncertainty, even digital gold gets jittery.
But there’s a glimmer of hope
Still, the picture isn’t clearly negative. The $65,000 zone is currently acting as a consolidation area. Such phases can build momentum — in either direction. According to Bitfinex, the key is whether the market can sustainably break above the $78,000 level. Only above that level could one speak of a “solid uptrend.”
Until then, waiting dominates. The market feels like a taut rope. On one side, optimists hoping for the next push. On the other, big investors who apparently are putting hedges in place. For retail investors, the situation is hard to read. Price is moving sideways, but the big addresses are shifting capital. ETFs are losing inflows, while derivatives traders are betting on falling prices. A puzzle of signals that currently looks more like risk than a rally.
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Whether the “whale preparation” actually leads to a broader sell-off remains to be seen. What’s clear, though: the current calm is masking growing tensions. In the world of cryptocurrencies, quiet phases are often followed by sharp moves. Bitcoin is therefore at a critical point. Between $65,000 and $78,000, it will be decided whether the market picks up new momentum — or slips into a deeper correction. The whales seem to be preparing their decision already. (mck)
