DeutschThe worst phase seems to be over. But there’s no all-clear. While the crypto market is slowly stabilizing, experts warn against misinterpreting the current situation. The big crash might be over – but uncertainty remains.
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This is according to a current analysis by market maker Wintermute. The company is one of the most influential players in crypto trading and closely monitors market movements. In its latest report, Wintermute paints a picture that offers hope but simultaneously urges caution.
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Bitcoin is at the center of the analysis. According to experts, the most important cryptocurrency has weathered the first major sell-off wave of the current bear market. «Bitcoin has survived the initial major selling pressure. Panic selling has decreased, and the market is stabilizing,» the report states. That sounds like a relief. However, the analysts immediately temper expectations: «This only means that the worst might be behind us – not that a new crypto uptrend has begun.»
A subtle but crucial distinction. Indeed, several indicators show improvement. Institutional investors, in particular, seem to be becoming more active again. The so-called Coinbase Premium – an important gauge for US demand – is rising. At the same time, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and over-the-counter purchases are increasing. For Wintermute, this is a clear signal: there is strong demand from large market participants around $60,000.
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A kind of safety net that could cushion larger crashes for now. But here too: stability is not the same as a breakthrough. Those hoping for quick price gains are likely to be disappointed. According to Wintermute, massive hurdles await above $70,000. The areas between $74,000 and $80,000, in particular, are considered difficult to overcome. «Strong resistances lie above $70,000. Especially $74,000 and $80,000 could be hard to break through,» say the analysts. In these zones, experts expect increased crypto sales.
Macro situation remains crucial
A scenario that could force the crypto market into a tough sideways phase. A look at the past shows why caution is advisable. Previous bear markets lasted an average of about 400 days. Currently, the market is only about halfway through this period. Wintermute puts it soberly: «Even if this cycle becomes shallower and shorter, the bottom may not have been reached yet.»
This assessment casts the current optimism in a different light. While the crypto market has recovered, it is far from being on solid ground. Additional uncertainty comes from external factors. Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, and monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve remain key risk factors. Rising energy prices could fuel inflation again – and thus delay interest rate cuts.
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For the crypto market, this means it remains vulnerable to global developments. Wintermute’s analysis shows a typical picture for this phase of the market. The panic is gone, the euphoria is missing. Investors are moving cautiously, almost tentatively. The big sell-off seems to be over. But the big upswing is still pending. Or in other words: The storm has subsided – but the sky is not yet clear. (mck)
