DeutschTension in the crypto market is rising. Bitcoin has been feeling its way upward for weeks, fighting through resistance levels, fueling hopes. But it’s precisely at this point that skepticism begins. One of the most well-known market observers, analyst Benjamin Cowen, warns against too much euphoria – and puts forward an uncomfortable thesis.
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In a recent YouTube video, which has been widely reported in the industry, Cowen describes the situation as critical. The price has reached a zone that has historically proven to be a stumbling block time and again. A zone that decides between breakout or setback. Cowen refers to the so-called “bear market resistance band.” A term that sounds technical but has a clear meaning: this is where many recovery attempts have failed in the past. And history, according to his analysis, could repeat itself once again.
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“Bitcoin has approached this bear market resistance zone multiple times this year – as in previous years,” Cowen explains, referring to earlier market phases. Particularly striking: the years 2018 and 2022. In both cases, the price reached similar levels – and ultimately bounced back. While there were brief breakouts, no sustainable trends emerged from them. For a real trend reversal, this pattern would need to be broken.
According to Cowen, what would be crucial is not just a rise above this level, but above all holding above it. But that’s exactly what he doubts. “Breaking through is possible, but holding there is difficult,” is his assessment. A statement that captures the core of the analysis. Short-term gains are conceivable, but stability remains questionable. Another factor amplifies the uncertainty: the macroeconomic outlook. Cowen points to seasonal effects and political cycles.
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In years with U.S. congressional elections, Bitcoin has historically struggled to establish sustainable uptrends. A coincidence? Possible. A pattern? Equally so. On top of that comes the development in the energy market. Rising energy prices could drive inflation – with direct consequences for monetary policy. “If energy prices rise, that means more inflation – and thus less room for interest rate cuts,” goes the argument. For risky assets like Bitcoin, that would be a clear headwind. The logic is simple: if interest rates remain high, less capital flows into speculative markets. Liquidity decreases, as does risk appetite.
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This exact combination had already created considerable pressure in 2022. Cowen’s conclusion is accordingly cautious. “I expect the price to be rejected in this area.” A clear expectation: rejection rather than breakthrough. Not a crash scenario, but a possible dampener on the current upward movement. Particularly noteworthy, however, is another thought. Should even this moderate rise fail, it could reveal a deeper problem.
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“If Bitcoin can’t even manage this expected move, that would be a sign of weakness,” says Cowen. This puts the market at a classic turning point. Between hope and reality, between momentum and macroeconomic risks. The coming weeks could determine whether Bitcoin actually enters a new phase – or once again fails at a familiar hurdle. The stage is set. The outcome remains open. (mck)
