DeutschAt first glance, sentiment in the crypto market still seems cautious, but a different picture is emerging behind the price moves. According to a recent analysis by US investment bank Bernstein, the signs are pointing to a structural recovery with long-term upside potential.
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In his report, digital analyst Gautam Chhugani speaks of “asymmetric upside potential” for the entire crypto market. This refers to a scenario in which the upside opportunities are seen as significantly greater than the downside risks. The basis for this, he says, is above all steady capital inflows from institutional investors, a robust holding structure among long-term investors, and the growing integration of blockchain technology into traditional financial systems.
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According to Bernstein, what stands out most is the changed market structure for Bitcoin. After the price stabilized around $60,000, it is now moving back toward the $80,000 mark. At the same time, the ownership structure has shifted fundamentally. A growing share of the supply is being held by investors who haven’t sold for more than a year. This group now controls around 60% of the available Bitcoin.
The analysis emphasizes that these investors in particular play a crucial role. They see Bitcoin less as a short-term speculative asset and more as a long-term store of value. Their reaction to price swings is correspondingly limited, which could dampen market volatility. In parallel, institutional access continues to expand. New products such as spot Bitcoin ETFs are gaining importance.
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Morgan Stanley, for example, entered the market with its own ETF and recorded significant inflows on the very first trading day. Other major financial institutions such as Charles Schwab are also expanding their crypto offerings for clients. The figures underscore the trend: According to Bernstein, around $2.7 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs over the past three weeks. These now hold a significant share of the total Bitcoin supply. Estimates put this at over 6%.
Why Bitcoin and others are becoming more stable than expected
Individual companies are also increasingly shaping the market. One large institutional Bitcoin investor stands out in particular, now holding more than 800,000 Bitcoin. That corresponds to a value of around $63 billion. Despite market fluctuations, additional holdings were accumulated, which is seen as a clear signal of a long-term strategy. Alongside Bitcoin, Bernstein says other developments are also coming into focus.
Stablecoins have reached a record level, with a volume of $276 billion. At the same time, the market for tokenized real-world assets—including loans and US Treasuries—is growing at annual rates of over 100%. Even technological risks such as quantum computing are addressed in the report. While there is a theoretical long-term threat to cryptographic systems, the analysts believe there is still enough time for technical adjustments.
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Bernstein’s conclusion is accordingly clear: The combination of institutional demand, technological progress, and a stable investor base points to a longer-lasting uptrend. Or as the report puts it: The best days of the crypto market may still lie ahead. (mck)
