DeutschA new paper from Fidelity Digital Assets is causing a stir: Analyst Zack Wainwright describes what may be Bitcoin’s greatest strength – and at the same time, its potentially greatest weakness.
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At the center is the «illiquid supply» of BTC. Millions of coins have been untouched in wallets for years, hoarded by early investors, institutional heavyweights, and publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy. According to research by Fidelity, there are now six million coins – almost 30 percent of the total supply. A number that shows: Bitcoin is scarcer than it seems at first glance.
Fidelity: Bitcoin Stronger than ever – and more Vulnerable than ever Before
As Fidelity Digital Assets reports, this scarcity could become a trap. Because if the big players – whether corporations or crypto whales – suddenly press the sell button, a downward spiral threatens. «The question is not whether profits will be realized. But when,» the report says. As early as July 2025, 80,000 old Bitcoins flowed into the market – coins that had previously been motionless for more than a decade. A foretaste of what could happen if nervousness rises.
The basic mood in the report is positive. Wainwright points out that Bitcoin has gained importance, especially in the zero-interest rate era of recent years. States like Japan are groaning under mountains of debt, and inflation is a global ongoing issue. In such times, investors look for alternatives – and often find them in cryptocurrencies. «We are at the beginning of a new era,» says Wainwright.
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A look back illustrates the drama: In the early days, coins from so-called faucets were almost given away. Five Bitcoins per mouse click – today worth more than half a million dollars. Abundance became scarcity. A game became a billion-dollar market.
But the market dynamics remain brutal. Fidelity recalls Tesla: When Elon Musk announced a few years ago that he would sell Bitcoin holdings, the price plummeted within hours. The memory runs deep – and it acts like a warning. Anyone who got in too late, for example at $90,000 or even $100,000, is particularly under pressure in the next crash.
Alarm about Crash Scenario for BTC
MicroStrategy, on the other hand, has the advantage of low entry prices. Founder Michael Saylor paid an average of around $74,000 per coin. Even with a 30 percent setback, his company would still be in the black. Latecomers, however, would not – they could be forced to sell at a loss in the event of a sell-off.
According to Fidelity, Bitcoin is currently at around $124,000 thanks to «new institutional capital, a fixed supply structure and falling emissions». The scenario: If the number of states and companies that actively hold Bitcoin grows, the supply could become even scarcer. The market would then have its own dynamic – and prices that are unimaginable today would suddenly be conceivable.
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And yet the downside remains. Because the more coins are in the hands of fewer players, the more violent the downward swings could be as soon as one of these giants falters.
Fidelity’s conclusion: Bitcoin is stronger than ever, but at the same time as vulnerable as never before. Scarcity is a blessing for believers – and a risk for those who believe that the price can only go in one direction. Because one thing is certain: buyers can become sellers at any time. (mck)
