{"id":39841,"date":"2020-05-29T12:46:07","date_gmt":"2020-05-29T10:46:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coinpro.ch\/uncategorized\/bitcoin-explained-what-is-the-stock-to-flow-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-05-01T04:12:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T02:12:07","slug":"bitcoin-explained-what-is-the-stock-to-flow-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.coinpro.ch\/en\/knowledge\/bitcoin-explained-what-is-the-stock-to-flow-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Analysis: What is the S2F Model?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Stock-to-Flow analysis is one of the best-known models for evaluating Bitcoin scarcity. In this article, we explain how the Stock-to-Flow ratio works, where the model comes from, what predictions it makes, and where its limits lie.<\/p>\n<h2>What is Stock-to-Flow analysis?<\/h2>\n<p>The Stock-to-Flow ratio allows for conclusions to be drawn about the scarcity of a good. It relates the existing supply of an asset (stock) to the amount produced annually (flow). The higher the ratio, the scarcer the good and the higher its price should theoretically be.<\/p>\n<p>The model originally comes from commodity analysis and has been applied to precious metals like gold and silver for decades. Since 2019, it has also been applied to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinpro.ch\/en\/tag\/bitcoin-en\/\">Bitcoin<\/a>, as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinpro.ch\/en\/bitcoin-en\/21-million-bitcoin-all-about-the-magic-number-in-the-bitcoin-universe\/\">Bitcoin&#8217;s limited supply<\/a> of 21 million units gives it similar scarcity characteristics to a precious metal.<\/p>\n<script type=\"text\/plain\" data-tcf=\"waiting-for-consent\" data-id=\"20572\" data-bid=\"1\" data-placement=\"33872\">PGRpdiBpZD0iY29pbnByby0xMzI4MDM1Nzc5IiBjbGFzcz0iY29pbnByby1pbS1pbmhhbHQgY29pbnByby1lbnRpdHktcGxhY2VtZW50IiBzdHlsZT0ibWFyZ2luLWJvdHRvbTogMzBweDttYXJnaW4tbGVmdDogYXV0bzttYXJnaW4tcmlnaHQ6IGF1dG87dGV4dC1hbGlnbjogY2VudGVyOyI+PHNjcmlwdCBhc3luYyBzcmM9Ii8vcGFnZWFkMi5nb29nbGVzeW5kaWNhdGlvbi5jb20vcGFnZWFkL2pzL2Fkc2J5Z29vZ2xlLmpzP2NsaWVudD1jYS1wdWItODcyNjY0NTYyNzYzODAzNSIgY3Jvc3NvcmlnaW49ImFub255bW91cyI+PC9zY3JpcHQ+PGlucyBjbGFzcz0iYWRzYnlnb29nbGUiIHN0eWxlPSJkaXNwbGF5OmJsb2NrOyB0ZXh0LWFsaWduOmNlbnRlcjsiIGRhdGEtYWQtY2xpZW50PSJjYS1wdWItODcyNjY0NTYyNzYzODAzNSIgCmRhdGEtYWQtc2xvdD0iMzUyNjI2NDg1MSIgCmRhdGEtYWQtbGF5b3V0PSJpbi1hcnRpY2xlIgpkYXRhLWFkLWZvcm1hdD0iZmx1aWQiIGRhdGEtZnVsbC13aWR0aC1yZXNwb25zaXZlPSJ0cnVlIj48L2lucz4KPHNjcmlwdD4gCihhZHNieWdvb2dsZSA9IHdpbmRvdy5hZHNieWdvb2dsZSB8fCBbXSkucHVzaCh7fSk7IAo8L3NjcmlwdD4KPC9kaXY+<\/script><h2>How does the Stock-to-Flow ratio work?<\/h2>\n<p>The calculation is based on two variables:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Stock:<\/strong> The current inventory or the total circulating supply of a good.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Flow:<\/strong> The amount produced annually, i.e., the inflow of new units.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The formula is: <strong>Stock-to-Flow Ratio = Stock \u00f7 Flow<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The ratio indicates how many years it would take to reproduce the current supply at a constant production rate. The value of scarcity increases in parallel with the height of the ratio.<\/p>\n<p>A calculation example for Bitcoin: After the fourth <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinpro.ch\/en\/bitcoin-en\/bitcoins-explained-what-is-bitcoin-halving\/\">halving<\/a> in April 2024, around 164,250 new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinpro.ch\/en\/bitcoin-en\/bitcoin-explained-how-are-bitcoins-created\/\">Bitcoins are mined<\/a> per year (450 BTC per day \u00d7 365). With a supply of over 20 million BTC (as of April 2026), this results in a Stock-to-Flow ratio of around 122. This means: At the current production rate, it would take 122 years to reproduce the existing supply.<\/p>\n<h2>Origin of Stock-to-Flow Analysis<\/h2>\n<p>Actually, analysts primarily base the Stock-to-Flow ratio on commodities such as gold, the &#8220;safe haven for investors.&#8221; The basic assumption of a rising price with increasing scarcity is usually true for the precious metal.<\/p>\n<p>Gold currently has an S2F ratio of about 60 to 65. This means: It would take around 60 years to reproduce the entire above-ground gold supply through mining. Silver is at about 22. In contrast, many industrial commodities like copper have very low S2F values because they can be reproduced quickly.<\/p>\n<p>The basic assumption: The higher the S2F ratio, the harder it is to increase supply in the short term, and the more likely a price increase is when demand rises.<\/p>\n<h2>Why is Stock-to-Flow analysis applied to Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n<p>None other than Nick Szabo sees Bitcoin&#8217;s scarcity as a &#8220;rather unforgeable costliness.&#8221; By definition, there are at most 21 million Bitcoins, which clearly distinguishes the digital currency from fiat money. In financial and economic crises, central banks like to fire up the printing presses and increase the money supply, which is usually accompanied by an increase in inflation rates.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin differs fundamentally here. The money supply is firmly anchored in the code and is further tightened by the halving every four years. The block reward was reduced from the original 50 BTC per block to the current 3.125 BTC. Bitcoin&#8217;s annual inflation rate is thus below one percent and therefore lower than that of gold. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinpro.ch\/en\/knowledge\/bitcoin-as-an-investment-comparison-with-gold-stocks-etfs-and-real-estate\/\">Bitcoin as an investment<\/a> is therefore also becoming more relevant in terms of inflation.<\/p>\n<p>This combination of a fixed upper limit and predictable scarcity makes Bitcoin the first digital asset suitable for Stock-to-Flow analysis.<\/p>\n<h2>The Stock-to-Flow model for Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p>The creator of the Bitcoin S2F model is <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/100trillionusd\">PlanB<\/a>, a pseudonymous crypto analyst. He published the model in 2019 and showed that the Bitcoin price followed the S2F ratio over long periods. The core thesis: Bitcoin behaves like a scarce good in terms of price, comparable to gold and silver.<\/p>\n<p>The model assumes that scarcity (measured by the S2F ratio) is the most important price driver. Since the S2F ratio jumps with every halving, the model predicts significantly higher prices after each halving.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, various evaluations conclude that Bitcoin&#8217;s Stock-to-Flow data can certainly keep up with that of gold and silver. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has even significantly surpassed gold in the S2F ratio with a value of around 122.<\/p>\n<h2>What predictions does Stock-to-Flow analysis make?<\/h2>\n<p>The S2F model establishes a relationship between the scarcity of an asset and its market price. For Bitcoin, it derives specific price ranges from this:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>After the first halving (2012, S2F ~25): The model expected prices in the double to triple-digit range. In fact, BTC rose to over $1,100.<\/li>\n<li>After the second halving (2016, S2F ~50): The model expected prices in the four-digit range. BTC reached almost $20,000.<\/li>\n<li>After the third halving (2020, S2F ~56): The model expected prices around $100,000. BTC reached around $69,000.<\/li>\n<li>After the fourth halving (2024, S2F ~122): The model predicted prices over $500,000. BTC reached an ATH of around $109,000 in October 2025 and is at around $77,000 in April 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The pattern shows: The direction was correct in every cycle. However, the specific price targets were increasingly missed, especially after the fourth halving.<\/p>\n<h2>Criticism of Stock-to-Flow analysis<\/h2>\n<p>In the view of many analysts, predicting the Bitcoin price using the S2F ratio is too speculative, while others swear by the approach. From the critics&#8217; perspective, the problem is that price movement is not determined solely by the Bitcoin production rate.<\/p>\n<p>The main points of criticism:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Demand is ignored:<\/strong> The model only considers the supply side. However, reliable predictions about rising demand can only be derived to a limited extent. There have been repeated moments in Bitcoin&#8217;s history when demand dropped unexpectedly.<\/li>\n<li><strong>External factors are missing:<\/strong> Regulation, macroeconomic developments (interest rates, inflation), institutional inflows (ETFs), and geopolitical events have a significant impact on the Bitcoin price. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, around $18.7 billion flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Such inflows have a greater impact on the price than pure supply scarcity.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Statistical weaknesses:<\/strong> Critics complain that the model is based on too few data points (only four halvings so far) and that the correlation between S2F and price does not necessarily prove causality.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Unrealistic projections:<\/strong> Among other things, market capitalization is neglected in the Stock-to-Flow ratio. Some well-known analysts have calculated that for a million-dollar price, BTC would have to reach a capitalization in an order of magnitude like relevant fiat currencies such as the US dollar or the euro. Despite increasing acceptance, such developments within a few years are probably rather unlikely.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Stock-to-Flow analysis and Bitcoin halvings<\/h2>\n<p>The halving is the central mechanism that causes Bitcoin&#8217;s S2F ratio to jump every four years. Even the influence of the halvings, which take place roughly every four years, and the associated halving of mining rewards is sometimes overrated. A temporarily lower supply of coins in the system also has a partly disproportionately clear effect on expectations in the Stock-to-Flow ratio.<\/p>\n<p>Experience shows that around a halving, the price moves in a range that is not 100% confirmed later. The historically strong movement after previous halvings is no guarantee for similar trends in the future.<\/p>\n<p>The fourth halving in April 2024 confirmed this. The S2F model predicted prices in the six-digit range, sometimes over $500,000. In fact, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of around $109,000 in October 2025, but corrected to around $77,000 afterwards. PlanB has since admitted himself that the model does not provide precise price targets, but rather shows an order of magnitude for the valuation.<\/p>\n<h2>Is Stock-to-Flow analysis useful for investors?<\/h2>\n<p>Despite the difficulties, the ratio can certainly be useful. After all, as the first digital asset, Bitcoin is inherently designed for scarcity and is thus on par with precious metals like gold and silver. Various analysts confirm that there is an actual relationship between Stock-to-Flow and the BTC market price, which in many cases can be classified as &#8220;statistically relevant.&#8221; And this relationship is by no means based on pure coincidence.<\/p>\n<p>However, as a sole forecasting tool, the S2F model is insufficient. The increasing importance of institutional inflows (Bitcoin spot ETFs), regulatory developments, and macroeconomic factors makes purely supply-based models incomplete. The Stock-to-Flow ratio is best understood as one building block in a broader analysis, not as a crystal ball.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion on Stock-to-Flow analysis for Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p>Stock-to-Flow analysis provides a comprehensible framework for evaluating Bitcoin&#8217;s scarcity and placing it in a historical context. The basic assumption that a scarce good increases in value when demand rises is economically plausible. The model has correctly predicted the direction of price development after halvings so far.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the S2F model has clear limits. It ignores the demand side, external market influences, and the growing role of institutional investors. The specific price targets were missed more significantly with each cycle. Those who use the model as one of several analytical tools can benefit from it. Those who rely blindly on it take an unnecessary risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock-to-Flow analysis is one of the best-known models for evaluating Bitcoin scarcity. In this article, we explain how the Stock-to-Flow ratio works, where the model comes from, what predictions it makes, and where its limits lie. What is Stock-to-Flow analysis? The Stock-to-Flow ratio allows for conclusions to be drawn about the scarcity of a good&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":35342,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17315,17331],"tags":[17387,17807],"class_list":["post-39841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-en","category-knowledge","tag-bitcoin-en","tag-knowledge"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin Explained: What is Stock-to-Flow Analysis? - CoinPro.ch<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is Stock-to-Flow analysis for Bitcoin? 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