DeutschThe Bitcoin chart currently shows a surprising picture: The volatility of digital gold is reaching historical lows – a scenario reminiscent of the calm before the storm.
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Currently, Bitcoin’s 90-day realized volatility stands at 25.21%, the lowest value since late 2016. At that time, BTC was trading at around $700. A year later, in December 2017, the price reached an all-time high of almost $20,000. “Everyone knows what happened next,” comments Jeff Park, Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC, on the current situation on X.
Bitcoin Volatility at Record Low: Will 2017 Repeat Itself Now?
However, it’s not just realized volatility that has fallen. Implied volatility, an indicator of expected future price fluctuations, is also at a historical low of 30.9%. This value was last reached in summer 2023, when the Bitcoin price fluctuated for weeks between $26,000 and $29,000.
Analysts, however, warn against interpreting this development as a clear signal for an impending price increase. “Such low volatility levels have often led to strong price movements in the past,” explains Park. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean history will repeat itself.”
The current market situation is significantly shaped by institutional investors. The entry of large financial institutions, particularly through Bitcoin ETFs, has led to a more stable price level. “Since the launch of the ETFs, the Bitcoin price has risen by about 250%, but with significantly fewer pullbacks,” says Park.
BTC: is the Next Rally Coming?
Nevertheless, the question remains: What does this quiet phase mean for the future of Bitcoin? Some experts see the current situation as an opportunity for another price increase. “If volatility remains so low, this could indicate an impending strong price movement,” speculates Park.
Others, however, warn against excessive euphoria. “Markets are complex, and many factors influence the Bitcoin price,” says an analyst who wishes to remain anonymous. “It’s important not to rely solely on historical patterns, but also to consider current developments.”
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The fact is: The current market situation offers both opportunities and risks. Investors should therefore rethink their strategies and not be guided by short-term trends. History shows that the Bitcoin market is unpredictable – and that’s exactly what makes it so fascinating. (mck)
