DeutschThe US, Israel and Iran reach a ceasefire in the Iran war. Once again, insiders predicted the success of the negotiations and made six-figure profits on Polymarket. By now, the traders seem to be avoiding the public eye. By repeatedly changing their names, they are trying to cover their tracks. Apparently, they have contacts within the US government.
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Ceasefire in the Iran war: Insiders speculate on Polymarket
In the Iran war, the first step toward peace has been taken: the US, Iran and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire—announced last night by US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on social media.
“If the attacks against Iran stop, our powerful armed forces will end their defensive operations,” Araghchi announced on X.
Over a period of two weeks, Israel, the US and Iran want to lay down their arms. The Strait of Hormuz is also set to remain open during this time.
“For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is possible through coordination with the Iranian armed forces,” Araghchi continued.
The global economy could breathe a sigh of relief. The Strait of Hormuz is of enormous importance for trade in fossil fuels. After it was closed in March, some countries had already rationed their petroleum products. Asian countries such as Bangladesh, Indonesia and Myanmar were mainly affected, but even Slovenia in Europe imposed a limit for private buyers.
The negotiations between the warring parties are also causing a stir in the crypto scene. Once again, insiders appear to have known the results before they were publicly announced. As a result, they monetized their knowledge on the prediction market Polymarket.
“They did it again!” analysts at Bubblemaps headlined today in one of their latest posts.
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Blockchain data indicates that several traders made six-figure profits by speculating on events whose outcomes they already knew in advance thanks to insider information.
How insider traders on Polymarket want to hide
According to Bubblemaps, the public is sometimes a thorn in insider traders’ side. That’s why they are said to be trying to cover their tracks. Since the Trump administration was sworn in, blockchain analysts have repeatedly noticed apparent insider trading. The public prediction market Polymarket is seemingly the most popular marketplace for profiting from exclusive knowledge.
According to Bubblemaps, four specific traders bet on a successful ceasefire between Iran and the US. They placed five-figure sums and multiplied their stake in the process. The traders had already drawn attention in the past because they had reliably predicted US government policy measures for months.
“Recently, three of the same users bet on a ceasefire between Iran and the US,” Bubblemaps explains. “They made $563,000 by betting on a ceasefire by April 7 and by April 15.
Up to the time of their bet, depending on the date, only 6% and 15% of the capital was betting on a successful ceasefire. While Bubblemaps assumes they could be insiders, there is no certainty.
“We can’t say for sure that these accounts belong to insiders. Their ceasefire hit rate isn’t perfect, and some predictions—such as the one for March 31—didn’t pan out,” Bubblemaps writes.
“Still, their track record of correctly predicting surprise attacks on Iran suggests they may have access to better information than most speculators,” they continue.
It is also striking that the traders change their usernames after every successful bet. Apparently, this is intended to make tracking them more difficult. Insider trading via crypto is considered a legal gray area in the US, but political opponents repeatedly accuse the Trump administration of it.
Why insiders lose money on Polymarket
The speculators mentioned had previously already bet on a ceasefire by March 31. That bet failed. Despite the failed prediction, they could still be insiders. In the past, blockchain analysts have already managed to identify insiders with a high degree of probability.
For example, insider trading linked to the US government often involves members of the Witkoff family, who are politically and commercially close to the Trumps. Other Trump business partners responsible for operating the company World Liberty Financial are also supplied early with exclusive information—such as Chase Herro.
Not every insider has a direct line to information sources. Insiders like the Witkoffs sometimes pass their knowledge on to their own contacts. This is how the well-known Chinese trader Garrett Jin was already able to generate enormous income from the Witkoffs’ knowledge.
Some insiders therefore occupy a lower rung in the information chain. International politics is also subject to rapid change. What initially seems certain can change quickly. Before the ceasefire, there were contradictory statements about the willingness to negotiate between the Iranian and US governments.
