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How high will the Bitcoin price rise in 2026? Many bullish price forecasts for 2025 fell significantly short of expectations. Now, former banker Pius Sprenger comments. He believes he can predict a realistic price for this calendar year. Investors are currently far too pessimistic.
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Bitcoin Price: How High BTC Can Rise in 2026
How far can the Bitcoin price rise in the calendar year 2026? Former banker Pius Sprenger recently addressed this question. On X, he shared his findings, which contrast with the collective intelligence on the prediction market Polymarket.
“Polymarket gives an eight percent chance of a Bitcoin price of $160,000 in 2026,” Sprenger began his commentary.
Speculators on Polymarket are currently betting primarily on the price reaching $80,000. According to Polymarket, these bets give this price an 80 percent probability. From the current Bitcoin price, only an eight percent increase in value would be needed to reach that point.
Even a price target of $90,000 enjoys significantly less confidence on Polymarket. Polymarket assigns it a probability of 56 percent – and it’s trending downwards.
“I side with the Power Law, which predicts a price of $160,000 by the end of the year,” writes Sprenger.
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Power Law describes a concept that defines a price maximum and a price minimum. According to it, the Bitcoin price stays within the range between the two extreme values. Historically, the Power Law largely holds true.
Only in rare cases has the price broken its boundaries. The boundary lines assume a steady growth in Bitcoin’s price.
At the time of publication, BTC is trading at $74,171. To rise to $160,000, a price gain of a full 116 percent would be necessary.
- Bitcoin
(BTC) - Price $75,106.00
- Market Cap
$1.5 T
Bullish Bitcoin Forecasts: Will the Concepts Hold Up in 2026?
Already in 2025, many price analysts published strikingly positive price forecasts. The price targets revealed therein were often significantly missed. For example, Standard Chartered and Arthur Hayes had each predicted a price of $250,000 by the end of 2025, which was widely missed.
BTC set a new all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025, which remains valid to this day. Although Arthur Hayes missed the price target, his fundamental prediction might still prove correct.
Hayes prophesied that the US government would drive inflation and thus the depreciation of the US dollar through a liberal spending policy. As a result, Bitcoin would directly benefit. The Bitcoin price is therefore directly on its way to one million US dollars. This is only a matter of time.
Recent developments show: External influences could also significantly impact the US dollar and the Bitcoin price. In the Iran war, Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz. Passing oil tankers are to pay a fee in Bitcoin to the Iranian government.
Pius Sprenger views this development as an important step towards the end of the petrodollar. Bitcoin could serve as its long-term replacement.
