DeutschThe crypto scene knows him, the financial world listens to him: Raoul Pal, former hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs and founder of Global Macro Investor, has once again painted a clear picture. And that sounds both promising and crazy. According to his analysis, the crypto market is facing a phase that he himself describes as irrational.
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The British macroeconomist sees the current weeks as a kind of “waiting room” for the markets. “The market is in a waiting loop. Everything is waiting for the breakout,” Pal writes on X. What is meant is: Many cryptocurrencies are gathering strength before they break out upwards – possibly faster and more violently than rational models could explain.
Crypto Economist Raoul Pal Sees Market Heading for Irrational Boom
Pal is not only looking at the top dogs Bitcoin and Ethereum. He finds the second row particularly exciting: Altcoins. “TOTAL3”, i.e. the market capitalization without Bitcoin and Ether, signals an imminent movement from his point of view. First Ethereum rose, then Solana followed suit. Next, according to Pal, projects like Sui could follow. And when the second wave rolls, “classic meme coins” like Dogecoin should also jump on. XRP, on the other hand, sees it in a transitional phase.
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Pal sees the trigger for the expected price rally in the global financial system. He refers to the steadily growing national debt of the major economies – USA, EU, China, Japan. “Debt is rising every day. That means more liquidity is being pumped into the market,” says Pal. For him it is clear: This flood of money will not only seep into stocks or bonds, but will also be washed into the crypto market. The result: a price explosion that decouples from rational valuation models.
Pal: Crypto Investors Need to be Patient
His credo: Investors need to be patient. “The path is clear, but not every step can be predicted with pinpoint accuracy. You have to be able to wait,” Pal warns. For Pal, the situation is very similar to the situation eight years ago. At that time, Bitcoin exploded from around 1,000 to almost 20,000 US dollars – accompanied by a hype about countless altcoins that reached billions in valuations out of nowhere. “The phase reminds me of 2017,” he explains. Only that the markets are more mature today, the infrastructure is more stable and the institutional investors have been there for a long time.
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What Pal describes is a kind of controlled euphoria: On the one hand, he urges patience, on the other hand, he fuels expectations of a rally without measure. The fact that he uses the word “irrational” himself fits the picture: Crypto markets have often been characterized by exaggerations that ended brutally at some point. Whether 2025 will actually be a new record year is uncertain. One thing is certain: Pal understands how to keep investors between hope and thrill – and the scene listens to him. (mck)
