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The Bitcoin price will rise less explosively in the future, but its gains will continue for significantly longer – according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. According to his assessment, Bitcoin’s previously groundbreaking four-year cycle is coming to an end. New factors are dominating the development of the crypto market, which will bring us profits for several more years. He doesn’t expect the crypto winter to arrive for another ten years, instead of 2026.
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Bitcoin price to rise less explosively in the future? Bitwise CIO explains
BTC is currently undergoing significant changes. The Bitcoin price will therefore rise less explosively in the future – this is the conclusion reached by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, as he revealed in an interview with CNBC. The investment manager is convinced that the price development will no longer play out as usual in the future.
- Bitcoin
(BTC) - Price $87,300.00
- Market Cap
$1.74 T
Hougan is one of a growing number of experts who are renouncing the previous four-year cycle of the Bitcoin price. Within four years, various phases of price development have taken place, which then started again from the beginning.
First, investors accumulated Bitcoin, which triggered a bull market. Then investors realized their profits, heralding the bear market. According to the previous calculation, the bull market will pass this year.
From 2026, the crypto market would therefore have to expect price losses. The bear market would begin. Due to drastically changed conditions, Hougan does not adhere to this assessment. Instead, the price gains should continue beyond 2026 and in the years to come.
“I believe that the four-year cycle is being replaced by a ten-year rhythm. There are now important new forces involved since the launch of the [US] Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. They were further encouraged by the regulatory opening in 2025,” Hougan describes.
Stablecoins and tokenization are also important topics among US financial institutions that are further driving the market, Hougan explains. The new forces – institutional investors – are more important for the Bitcoin price than its tried and tested price drivers.
“The new forces are stronger than those that triggered the historical four-year cycle. To be clear: I expect the crypto market to continue to rise in the coming year.”
Did you know? Why crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes predicted the end of the four-year cycle months ago.
BTC is unusually low in 2025: Are experienced investors to blame?
The fact that BTC is unusually low in late 2025 – at the time of going to press, the largest cryptocurrency is trading at just $87,270 – is, according to Hougan, due to experienced investors.
People who are used to the four-year cycle from the past are contributing to the price slump with their pessimism, Hougan argues.
“I don’t think we are in a four-year cycle anymore. I see a ten-year upswing in which we will generate strong returns,” the Bitwise investment manager continues.
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BTC will no longer increase as explosively as in the past due to the new driving forces. In general, volatility is decreasing in favor of gradual gains.
“There will be strong gains, but no spectacular increases in value. Volatility is decreasing. There is a little up and down,” Hougan predicts.
Sebastian Bea, investment manager at ReserveOne, agreed with Hougan to the extent that significant new influences are affecting Bitcoin. However, he does not yet definitively dismiss the four-year cycle. The psychological effect of the Bitcoin halving could still keep it alive, Bea believes.
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