DeutschThe recent price slumps have once again put the crypto market on alert. But while investors nervously eye the charts, a heavyweight in the financial world is striking surprisingly relaxed tones. The analysis firm Bernstein, which manages over $750 billion in client funds, sees no reason to panic in the current market weakness. On the contrary, according to a report by the firm, which several international media outlets are reporting on, Bitcoin could even fall to around $80,000 in the short term – without this meaning the end of the bull cycle.
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The argumentation seems almost like a counter-draft to the pessimistic voices that smell the big bang in every correction. Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chugani do not speak of a “cycle top”, but of a “superficial correction.” The market is more robust today than in previous years, the report says. A sentence that is primarily intended to reassure investors who remember the violent crashes of 2017 or 2021. At that time, even a small spark of uncertainty led to major distortions. Today, however, the structure seems more stable.
Bitcoin: why the Price Absolutely Has to Fall to $80,000
The analysts attribute this, among other things, to the new forces in the market: institutional investors and exchange-traded Bitcoin products. The fact that these groups have not only watched in recent months, but have actively bought, is one of the central points of the analysis. While long-term Bitcoin owners have reportedly given up around 340,000 BTC in the last six months – a volume of over 38 billion dollars – ETF issuers and corporate treasurers have reportedly stood on the buyer side with around 34 billion dollars. An almost balanced ratio that shows how strong the demand from the professional camp has become.
The ownership structure is also changing. The proportion of institutional owners in Bitcoin ETFs is said to have risen from 20 to 28 percent, which Bernstein says is a clear indication of a “more mature market phase.” Although there have recently been outflows of around three billion dollars, the fundamental trend continues to point upwards – towards long-term holders rather than short-term speculators.
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The Bernstein analysts also classify the discussions about the US company Strategy, which holds more than 640,000 BTC. They reject fears that the company could come under pressure and have to sell en masse. Strategy has stable revenues, a manageable debt of eight billion dollars and no reason to sell Bitcoin. The much-vaunted “huge sales pressure” is therefore more of a media myth than a real risk.
Bernstein Report Gives Crypto Investors Hope
In their report, Bernstein describes the current phase as part of a “multi-year institutional growth trend.” The times of the old four-year cycles – halving, rally, crash – are over. Instead, a market is developing that is more strongly supported by professional capital and less driven by spontaneous changes in sentiment. The possible low point at $80,000 is therefore not a sign of a fading dynamic, but rather an attractive entry point for patient investors.
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For many, that may sound like optimism in the storm. But anyone who has followed the crypto market for a longer period of time knows that there is often only a blink of an eye between panic and euphoria. Bernstein chooses a middle ground – factual, sober, but with a clear message: Not every decline is a disaster. Sometimes it’s just the breath before the next long sprint. (mck)
