DeutschThe classic four-year Bitcoin cycle is over. The Halving, which was previously the most important factor for the crypto market’s price development, could also increasingly fade into the background. Political, regulatory, and economic influences are now particularly decisive for gains or losses. Crypto expert Arthur Hayes explains the reasons.
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Why the Classic Bitcoin Cycle is Over
The classic Bitcoin cycle is over. Factors that previously dominated the cryptocurrency’s price development are now fading into the background. Instead, new factors are taking control over the price – as crypto expert Arthur Hayes argues in his latest blog post. Four-year market phases can no longer be expected in the future.
The analyst believes that four years is too long a period – thus, the previous cycle cannot continue. Monetary policy is becoming too complex to maintain this rhythm.
However, Hayes is also indirectly addressing the Bitcoin Halving with this. Every four years, the block reward is halved. This reduces the supply of fresh BTC. So far, the Halving has had a strong effect on price development. However, because external influences now play a more dominant role, the Halving may also fade into the background.
In 2024, when the last Bitcoin Halving was imminent, Hayes still argued for the block halving. Hayes had initially promised that it would unfold its effect as usual again. BTC then did not achieve the expected price increase during the Halving in April 2024. Even then, a shift in the market was observed: Political events increasingly came to the forefront.
The influence of entirely new factors is now even more noticeable than last year. Increasingly often, legislation affects crypto. Especially state Bitcoin reserves have enormous potential to drive the price. Hayes’ conclusion:
“The four-year Bitcoin and crypto cycle does not apply now. This was the most common question I was asked at the Token2049 conference,” Hayes explained via X.
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These Factors are Now Crucial for the Bitcoin Price
So the question now arises: Which new factors are now crucial for the Bitcoin price? First, the establishment of new state Bitcoin or crypto reserves is considered an important spark.
Two decrees by US President Donald Trump are considered particularly influential, as he initiated the launch of a Bitcoin reserve and a broader crypto reserve in the United States in March 2025. The USA is among the nine countries in the world whose authorities are known to hold Bitcoin. Other states could follow their example.
In general, the financial policy of some states can also massively affect the Bitcoin price. In his essay, Hayes argues that the influence of China and the USA, in particular, is enormous. If both countries devalue their fiat currencies and further drive inflation, these decisions will cause gains for BTC, Ethereum, and similar assets.
Under the current US administration, Hayes expects a drastic increase in the money supply. The Trump cabinet is interested in cheap credit and rising inflation. China is at least willing to prevent a deflation of the Yuan through increased money printing.
The bottom line: Fiat currencies continue to lose value and significance. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are the natural beneficiaries, Hayes writes.
In addition, there are growing institutional investments. US companies, in particular, already see crypto as unique investment assets. This reputation also benefits crypto more clearly internationally.
Crypto ETFs have already collected tens of billions of US dollars in the USA. Strategy triggered a new trend. New companies are constantly emerging that establish themselves as crypto treasury firms.
“Listen to our currency guardians in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money should be cheaper and more abundant. That’s why Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this very likely future,” Hayes predicts.
Did you know? That’s why a Bitcoin price of one million US dollars is already inevitable.
